Over the next five days, NHL players will vote on whether to grant their executive committee the right to proceed with a disclaimer of interest. For the motion to be successful, players must vote 2/3 in favor.
It is expected that the motion will succeed, based on tweets and public comments made by a number of players over the last few months. But these comments have been made by players who have made themselves front of line in terms of media accessibility. Also, players publicly tend to support the union in a show of solidarity. Will the vote be that conclusive secretly?
Predicting the outcome of this vote is like wheather forecasting, but the fun is in trying. The following is an attempt at a prediction based on player circumstances, using the Montreal Canadiens roster as a sample.
The first category are players that just signed important contracts. Even though these players are younger, it is expected that they are eager to start pulling in their new stipend, and would vote against the motion. In this category we find three players:
• Max PAC, David Desharnais, Carey Price
The next category includes rookies trying to break in. These players have been pushing hard to make the Team and would also be expected to vote against. This group includes:
• Frederick St Denis, Aaron Palushaj, Blake Geoffrion,
Then we have a category I will call the Character vets. These are guys that give it all for their teammates on the ice, and are expected to behave the same way off the ice, and vote in favor. The Habs have the following:
• Eric Cole, Brian Gionta, Josh Gorges, Francis Bouillon, Colby Armstrong, Travis Moen, Brandon Prust
PK Subban is in a category of his own, that I will call the ill informed, impetuous type. He will vote in favor.
So far 8 for, 6 against.
The next group I will generously call the Grateful Europeans. these players are sick of riding buses and eating cow’s tongue in Siberia or elsewhere. AKA Friends of Hamrlik, they are expected to vote against:
• Andrei Markov, Lars Eller, Raphael Diaz, Yannick Weber, Peter Budaj, Thomas Kaberle, Alexei Emelin
We round things off with the Lazy Buggers who will never get a contract like they have currently. In this category Habs show 2, who will also vote against:
• Rene Bourque, Scott Gomez
Final tally 8 for, 15 against. Of course there are wild cards here. Maybe the first category would support their teammates knowing that they are young enough to recuperate their financial losses. And maybe some imports would vote for, although that would be the exception more than the norm.
If the Habs are any indication, this vote will not even be close. But of course the Habs probably have a higher number of imports that many Teams, and may not be representative.
What do you think?